Uzbekistan has emerged to be the largest producer of electricity in Central Asia, with a total installed capacity of more than 12,500 MW. The electricity generation grew at a CAGR of 2.41% during the period. About 85% of the country’s capacity is generated by fossil fuel power plants, while the rest is provided by hydro facilities. The electricity consumption is expected to surge due to the high rate of industrialization and growth in the population, the demand for electricity is set to increase rapidly over the forecast period. The increasing demand for electricity is expected to drive the market over the forecast period. However, the country’s power sector has constantly struggled to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population and a developing economy, due to outdated infrastructure and inefficient management which is expected to restrain the growth of the market during the forecast period.
– The thermal power generation sector dominated the power market in the country, owing to a large number of thermal power plants.
– The increase in the capacity of renewables and nuclear generation capacity to decrease the carbon footprint is expected to render opportunity for the growth of the market over the forecast period.
– The increasing industrialization and urbanization has been driving the power demand in the country.
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Key Market Trends
The Thermal Power Generation to Dominate the Market
– Uzbekistan power generation mix involves thermal power plants with total capacity of 10.6 GW producing up to 90% of the total production of electricity. In the structure of primary energy used in thermal power plants for the production of electricity and heat, the share of gaseous fuels account for 94 %, Fuel oil 2%, and coal accounting for ~4%.
– Furthermore, according to the ministry of energy, the increasing demand of electricity would require the government to at least double the existing power generation capacity till 2030, since 80% of the current generating units are outdated and obsolete, with an average age of more than 30 years, so most of the existing power plant would require decommissioning.
– The government, in a bid to reduce the burden on the government budget for the construction of new power plants, is promoting private investment in the power sector.
– A majority of the new capacity is expected to come up from the thermal power plants, which is expected to drive the power market during the forecast period.
Increasing Demand for Electricity Due to Industrialization to Drive the Market
– The growth in the economy has fostered the number of new industries entering the processing, textiles, agriculture, manufacturing, and metallurgy markets. Due to the high rate of industrialization and growth in the population, the demand for electricity is set to increase rapidly over the forecast period. The increasing demand for electricity is expected to drive the market over the forecast period.
– According to the official report from the Ministry of Energy, over the next five years, more than USD 2.8 billion will be required to upgrade the existing infrastructure, and to further add to the power generation capacity, it will expectedly cost as much as USD 14.4 billion.
– The government, in a bid to reduce the pressure on the state budget, has been emphasizing on reforming the power sector. Furthermore, to enhance the flow of technology and know-how into the country, the government is looking forward to attract foreign investment in the power sector, which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities.
– Additionally, the country has been a major supplier of electricity to Afghanistan and, in a bid to strengthen the ties and remove the vulnerability of price fluctuations, officials from Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement in September 2019.
– With this agreement, the demand for electricity is expected to rise further, creating an additional demand for power and is expected to drive the Uzbekistan power market over the forecast period.
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The market is fragmented. The key players in this market Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd, Masdar Clean Energy Company, Helios Energy Ltd, SkyPower Ltd, Federal Hydro-Generating Co RusHydro PAO, and others.
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